Climate shocks are becoming an economic risk for sport, not only an operational concern for individual events. The global sports economy generates an estimated $2.3 trillion in annual revenue across professional and participatory sport, sporting goods and sports tourism. It is projected to reach $3.7 trillion by 2030, according to analysis published by Oliver Wyman with the World Economic Forum.
In brief
- The global sports economy generates an estimated $2.3 trillion in annual revenue and is projected to reach $3.7 trillion by 2030.
- Climate change and nature loss threaten sports participation, operations and the environmental assets that support the sector.
- The World Economic Forum says almost one-fifth of the sector’s potential growth is threatened by climate change and rising physical inactivity.
- Under current trends, only 10 countries are estimated to retain the conditions and resources to host the Winter Olympics and Paralympics by 2040.
That growth outlook depends on conditions that are increasingly exposed to climate change. Heatwaves, floods, pollution and declining snow cover can affect where people play, travel and compete. They also raise questions about the resilience of venues, tourism activity and supply chains connected to sport. These pressures sit at the intersection of environmental change and a broad global economic landscape in which sport has become a significant source of activity, investment and employment.
A growing market with vulnerable foundations
The estimate of the sports economy includes professional sport, participation, sporting goods and sports tourism. Oliver Wyman identifies sports tourism as the largest projected contributor to near-term revenue growth, while also describing sport as an increasingly investible asset class with expanding opportunities in emerging markets.
However, the same analysis calls the opportunity fragile. Climate change, nature loss and rising physical inactivity are identified as systemic risks because they threaten participation, sports operations and the natural assets that make sport possible. The concern is not confined to elite competitions. Recreational activity, travel, equipment production and community facilities all depend, in different ways, on accessible spaces and sufficiently stable environmental conditions.
A World Economic Forum report cited by The Athletic’s examination of the global sports economy concludes that almost one-fifth of the sector’s potential growth is threatened by the combined effects of climate change and rising physical inactivity. The report characterizes the two as interconnected systemic risks that can reinforce each other by weakening participation, disrupting supply chains, undermining investment confidence and eroding long-term revenue potential.
This framing matters because it moves the discussion beyond the costs of a disrupted match or a difficult season. A sports economy built around regular participation and travel needs people to be able to use facilities, visit destinations and take part in outdoor activity. Environmental conditions are therefore part of the market’s operating base, alongside consumer demand, infrastructure and investment.
Heat, water and snow affect different parts of sport
Climate exposure varies significantly across sports and locations. The material reviewed for the World Economic Forum report points to heatwaves, flooding, pollution and reduced snow cover as pressures on sports activity. These conditions can affect athletes and spectators, but they also shape the availability and operating requirements of fields, roads, venues and outdoor spaces.
Winter sport illustrates the geographic dimension of the problem. On current trends, the World Economic Forum estimates that only 10 countries will have the conditions and resources to host the Winter Olympics and Paralympics by 2040. Declining snow cover can narrow the number of viable host locations, concentrating a global event within a smaller group of countries with suitable climate conditions and the capacity to stage it.
The risks are not limited to cold-weather disciplines. A report cited by The Athletic projected that 14 of the 16 stadiums due to host 2026 World Cup matches in the United States, Canada and Mexico will be significantly affected by extreme heat by 2050. The projection does not establish the consequences for specific tournaments or revenues, but it underlines the long-term exposure of major sports infrastructure to changing temperatures.
For the broader sector, the significance lies in the diversity of affected activities. Participatory sport relies on usable public and private spaces. Sports tourism relies on destinations and travel. Sporting goods production relies on manufacturing and resource systems. Professional competitions rely on venues that can operate safely and reliably. Climate-related disruption can therefore reach several parts of the sports economy at once, even when the precise impact differs by sport and region.
Physical inactivity compounds the climate challenge
The World Economic Forum report places physical inactivity alongside climate change rather than treating it as a separate issue. This reflects the economic importance of participation. When fewer people are active, the base supporting recreational sport, sports tourism and long-term fan engagement can weaken.
According to reporting on the report, the global sports industry could risk losing $1.6 trillion by 2050 because of the combined effects of climate change and insufficient physical activity. That figure should be read as a combined-risk assessment, not as a forecast attributable to climate shocks alone. It also points to an important distinction between headline market projections and the conditions needed to achieve them.
Oliver Wyman estimates that the sector itself produces between 400 million and 450 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions each year. Its analysis argues that continued commercial growth will need to be reconciled with environmental stewardship over the long term. This is presented as a strategic challenge for a sector whose expansion includes tourism, infrastructure, merchandise and large-scale events.
The central issue is therefore not whether sport remains economically important. The available estimates indicate that it already is, and that it is expected to grow. The more difficult question is whether the environments, facilities and active populations on which that growth depends can remain sufficiently resilient as climate pressures intensify. The World Economic Forum and Oliver Wyman analysis places that question at the center of the sports economy’s outlook.
Featured image. Source: Pexels. Credit: Luis Quintero. License: Pexels License.
