Trump’s Russian diesel deal: small first tranche, furious Kyiv
A temporary Treasury licence lets Russian diesel in, but the first tranche is small against US demand, and Kyiv, Congress and London have reacted sharply.
By
Owen Caldwell
Donald Trump announced on Friday a deal with Vladimir Putin to bring Russian diesel onto American and global markets, prompting an angry response from Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
In brief
- Trump set out the terms on Truth Social.
- “Ukraine will not set Russian oil refineries on fire if Russia does not destroy our energy infrastructure,” he said.
- A spokesperson for the UK government said Britain’s position “could not be clearer” and promised to keep backing Ukraine while pressing Russia with the harshest sanctions the country has ever applied.
What the deal contains
Trump set out the terms on Truth Social. According to The Guardian, the president described a staged schedule of deliveries, the last of which depends on the condition of Russia’s refineries.
| Stage | Volume announced | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| First release | Over 300,000 tonnes | Immediately |
| Second release | 500,000 tonnes | During November |
| Third release | 1,000,000 tonnes | Immediately thereafter |
| Further supply | 3,000,000 tonnes | Within a short period, depending on refinery condition |
Per the BBC, Treasury officials issued a short-term licence soon after Trump spoke, opening the way for Russian diesel to enter the market. It is understood that sanctions on Russian diesel exports are suspended until 7 April, while other assets, including those in American banks, remain frozen.
Moscow’s confirmation was less precise. Putin said only that Russia was ready to sell oil and refined fuels to American and global buyers, without naming any quantities. Russia had banned diesel exports earlier this year. His envoy Kirill Dmitriev wrote that “Russia-US co-operation on diesel and energy will benefit the world.” What Russia receives in return is unclear, and its ability to deliver the announced volumes has not been verified.
Kyiv’s anger and the Miami talks
Zelenskyy called the deal a gift to Putin and warned that Russia would repay it with further terror. He told Axios it “looks like a happy birthday present for Putin”, who turned 74 earlier in the week, and described the agreement as “an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged”.
The timing deepened the grievance. On the same day, Trump’s envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were in Miami meeting Ukrainian and European officials about proposals to end the war. In a statement issued through Ukraine’s embassy in Washington, Zelenskyy said his negotiators had served as cover for the agreement.
Behind the dispute sits a quarrel over Ukraine’s long-range strikes. Ukrainian drones have hit Russian refineries, causing two waves of severe fuel shortages inside Russia this year, and the International Energy Agency estimates Russian diesel output has fallen by nearly 30%. Trump has criticised those attacks and asked Zelenskyy to choose other targets. Zelenskyy defended them as a response to Russia’s campaign against Ukraine’s energy sector and rejected the request unless Russia accepts reciprocal de-escalation. “Ukraine will not set Russian oil refineries on fire if Russia does not destroy our energy infrastructure,” he said.
Will American drivers notice at the pump?
Trump said diesel prices would fall quickly and sharply. That claim is his own and has not been demonstrated. Diesel is where the pain is sharpest, because it fuels supply chains and farm machinery.
The BBC reports the current average sits below the record of $6.53 reached at the end of September; The Guardian puts last month’s peak at $6.52.
Set against one another, the volumes tell the story. Tim Armitage, an investment strategist at Quilter Cheviot, said the first tranche equated to about 2.25 million barrels, against daily US consumption of about 3.8 million, “so it won’t make a material difference to pump prices in the US”. He noted two more releases are to come. Other analysts have questioned whether Russia can produce the quantities and how far they would ease prices. The effect on fuel prices remains unclear.
The energy shock behind the decision
The deal is one piece of a wider response to soaring fuel costs since the war with Iran began in February:
- Iran closed the strait of Hormuz, which carried 20% of global oil supplies before the war; a gallon of petrol now averages $4.20.
- Brent crude remains above $103 a barrel, compared with about $73 before the war.
- Earlier this week Trump floated suspending the federal gasoline tax and allowed red dye diesel onto US highways without paying federal tax.
- He also leaned on G7 countries to put 100 million barrels of stockpiled oil on the market.
A clash with the new sanctions law
Congress recently passed, and Trump signed, legislation authorising sanctions on Russian banks, officials and tankers, along with tariffs on the top importers of Russian oil and gas. The law gave the president wide discretion to make exceptions.
Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer, with senators Jeanne Shaheen and Elizabeth Warren, said the diesel arrangement undercuts that law. Criticism also came from Trump’s own party. “Propping up Putin’s war economy is morally wrong as he uses that money to bomb cities,” wrote Don Bacon, a Republican congressman from Nebraska.
London signalled it would not follow. A spokesperson for the UK government said Britain’s position “could not be clearer” and promised to keep backing Ukraine while pressing Russia with the harshest sanctions the country has ever applied.
Featured image. Source: Pexels. Credit: Engin Akyurt. License: Pexels License.
