Why the IPCC’s next climate report has no publication date yet
Talks in Addis Ababa ended without a publication date for the IPCC’s next assessment, a gap that now touches the 2028 review of emissions pledges.
By
Naomi Fletcher
In brief
- The IPCC ended its meeting in Addis Ababa without a firm date for its seventh assessment report.
- Saudi Arabia, Russia and India lead objections to publication in 2028, with China and Kenya also opposed.
- Critics fear a slip would miss the next round of emissions pledges; the IPCC says its authors already draw on global evidence.
- Governments meet at Cop31 in Turkey in less than a month.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has no publication date for its next big report, and a bloc of governments is the reason the question stayed open. On Friday in the Ethiopian capital, the panel halted a key session, according to The Guardian. Delegates had spent a week talking and had advanced on numerous points, yet they failed to agree when the next full evaluation of climate science should come out.
AR7, the seventh assessment report, had been scheduled for 2028. Some participants would like it moved to 2029 or even later. Jim Skea, who chairs the IPCC, has promised that the body will meet again as soon as it can.
Who objects to 2028, and why
Saudi Arabia, Russia and India head an informal coalition of governments that also counts China and Kenya among its members, and it has opposed a 2028 release. Its case is that developed countries hold sway over climate research, and that this, in its view, has distorted the conclusions. That is the stance of the objecting governments, not something that has been demonstrated.
Arguments for delay
- Developing countries should have a meaningful voice in shaping the science.
- More time could allow research from the developing world to be brought in.
Arguments against
- The IPCC says it already includes scientists from around the world and watches equity to guard against developed-country bias.
- Much basic science rests on physics and chemistry that do not differ between rich and poor countries.
- The bulk of the research feeding into AR7 is already in print and being reviewed, which makes it harder to bring in further sources at this stage.
- Saudi Arabia, Russia, China and India have established scientific institutions and could have built models or funded other developing countries to do so.
Critics also point to Saudi Arabia’s record. For many years it has obstructed climate action, notably by attempting to soften earlier IPCC reports, and staff of oil companies as well as scientists tied to the oil industry serve on IPCC committees.
What a later date would cost the climate calendar
Numerous scientists and experts fear that a postponement would prevent AR7 from shaping the next round of pledges to cut emissions, which are due to be discussed at Cop33 in late 2028. That fear is theirs and is not a confirmed outcome. Under the schedule fixed by the 2015 Paris agreement, 2028 is the year of the second global stocktake, when governments’ pledges are examined against the aim of keeping warming to 1.5C above preindustrial levels.
Oscar Soria, director at the Common Initiative group, said: “The failure to agree the timeline is not a procedural detail, it has real consequences.”
Divisions, a compromise and the next test
- Scientists disagree. Some are against a delay because they see it endangering progress on lowering emissions. A few prominent figures back it, contending that the question of whose research shapes the science is as important as speed. Others have lamented the dispute without choosing a side.
- A compromise has been floated. The IPCC could begin immediately to develop ways of drawing in more science from the developing world and of critiquing its own procedures. It would hold to 2028 for the opening section of its report, the one covering the physical science, which is one of four parts, and allow the sections on impacts and solutions to come later.
- Authors are pressing on. An open letter came from 117 scientists, many based in developing countries, among them several Chinese researchers and one Indian: “Our message to governments and to the world is simple: we will keep working,”
- Cop31 is close. Governments meet in Turkey in less than a month, and the issue is certain to come up there.
Mohamed Adow, director of the Power Shift Africa thinktank, called it “deeply frustrating that governments have failed to agree a way forward.”
Photo: RDNE Stock project / Pexels
